SATURDAY UPDATE: Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever added seven material offshore markets on Friday, including the UK, Spain and Japan. Through yesterday, the international box office cume is $64.7M. Globally, including domestic’s strong performance out of the gate, the cume through Friday is $148.7M.
We are now eyeing an overseas launch weekend in the $140M range and a worldwide start above $300M. The sequel is indeed coming in lower internationally than we projected. This is in part due to Asia Pacific not performing as expected. We knew that Korea was a point of concern given the market is coming out of a mourning period following a national tragedy, and we are also hearing that the length of the film and its limited action are affecting numbers in the region.
Through Friday, it is estimated that BP2 is running 116% ahead of Black Adam, 28% ahead of The Batman and 13% below Black Panther on a like-for-like basis.
All openings on Friday were No. 1s save Japan where a local film, Suzume No Tojimari, came in first.
The Top 5 overseas markets for Wakanda Forever through Friday are France ($7.9M), Mexico ($5.3M), UK ($4.9M), Korea ($3.6M/$6.4M through Saturday and not reflected in the totals above) and Australia ($3.2M).
Full update and analysis to come on Sunday.
FRIDAY UPDATE: As Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever continues its overseas rollout, the sequel has grossed $30.8M in 43 markets through Thursday at the international box office. Along with domestic previews, this puts the running global total at $58.8M.
On Thursday, BP2 added majors Australia, Brazil and Mexico. This is before the UK, Spain, Japan and India join the fray today.
The first two days’ overall offshore results are estimated at 143% ahead of Black Adam, 26% above The Batman and 16% below the original Black Panther on a like-for-like basis. Wakanda Forever is not opening amid any significant holidays whereas the original Black Panther bowed during the Lunar New Year across Asia.
The Top 5 markets through Thursday are France ($3.8M), Mexico ($3.1M), Korea ($2.3M/$3.6M including Friday which is not reflected in the totals above), Brazil ($2M) and Australia ($1.8M).
On Thursday, the Ryan Coogler-directed film launched No. 1 in all Latin American markets. Brazil had the 3rd biggest opening of 2022 and the 4th of the pandemic with 89% market share. In Mexico the share was 88%. In Asia Pacific, BP2 was also No. 1 in all markets. The film’s market share in Malaysia was 96% with the 3rd biggest opening day of the year. Europe has also debuted No. 1 in all markets.
More updates to come throughout the weekend.
PREVIOUS: Disney/Marvel’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever got out to a $10.1M start in 17 international box office markets on Wednesday. This is ahead of continued offshore rollout through Friday and the sequel’s domestic debut on Friday (domestic previews start Thursday).
In like-for-likes, the first day overall results are estimated to be 225% ahead of Black Adam, 45% ahead of The Batman, 27% below the orignal Black Panther (which had the benefit of opening during the Lunar New Year in Asia) and 31% below Thor: Love & Thunder (which opened during the summer holidays).
On Wednesday, the Ryan Coogler-directed Wakanda Forever debuted in France, Germany, Italy and Korea among majors.
It was No. 1 in all markets, led by France ($2.2M) for the 3rd highest opening day of 2022 and with 70% market share.
In Korea, which was the No. 3 overseas grosser on the original film, the Wednesday bow was $1.4M ($2.25M through today and not included in the international total above). The movie has dominated play, but as we noted in our preview, this could be a swing — the country is coming out of a mourning period following a national tragedy.
Indonesia and Germany were even with $900K each on Wednesday. The former landed the 4th highest opening day during the pandemic era and an incredible 99% market share.
Thailand rounded out the Top 5 on Wednesday with $800K at a 97% share.
A vast swath of Latin America bows today, and previews are good at $4M (not included in the $10.1M above). Despite only being previews, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever was No. 1 across the region on Wednesday, including both Brazil and Mexico.
Offshore rollout continues today and tomorrow, with domestic joining on Friday.
We’ll continue to update throughout the weekend.