Industry projections this morning see Paramount/Skydance’s Terminator: Dark Fate at a $40M+ domestic start when it opens on Nov. 1.
The sixth Terminator movie reteams series stars Arnold Schwarzenegger and Linda Hamilton, who haven’t been on screen together since 1991’s Terminator 2: Judgement Day. The film also brings the duo back together with Terminator creator James Cameron, who returns to the franchise as a producer and story by scribe. Deadpool‘s Tim Miller directs. 20th Century Fox has overseas on the movie.
We hear that the TV spot campaign for Dark Fate is about to kick into high gear. That said, note there’s a lot of upside here for Dark Fate to go significantly higher. Not only does the movie bring Cameron, Hamilton and Schwarzenegger back together, it returns the series to its R rating. That’s a big deal in regards to octane, as Miller exclaimed to Hall H at San Diego Comic-Con. The last two Terminator movies, Genisys and Salvation were PG-13. Should Dark Fate best the 3-day opening of 2003’s Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines ($44M), it will rep a record weekend debut for the franchise. We hear Dark Fate has a lock on men older and younger.
Note, typically the Terminator movies open midweek like on a Tuesday (Terminator 2 and 3), Wednesday (the last installment Genisys which didn’t do very well), and Salvation (Thursday). This is the first time that a Terminator film has opened on a Friday since the original 1984 movie.
The other wide entry competition for the pre-Veterans Day weekend doesn’t look so hot: Entertainment Studios’ animated pic Arctic Dogs is seeing $5M, Warner Bros.’ Edward Norton noir Motherless Brooklyn is eyeing $6M and Focus Features Harriet about abolitionist and political activist Harriet Tubman is projected at $8M.