After a record $4.67B summer, last weekend’s Practical Magic 2 from Warner Bros/Alcon didn’t exactly light the fall on fire. But this weekend’s revival of Resident Evil from Zach Cregger could very well do the trick with a $40M-$50M domestic start and another $31M overseas for a global around $80M on the high end.
While many were bullish on Practical Magic 2 over the total awareness, reviews at 38% kept the older female audience from expanding. Also, the sequel’s addition of Joey King and Maisie Williams didn’t bring the under 25s running. So don’t immediately assume that the marketplace is in a funk.
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Resident Evil is a completely different movie: Aside from the potential draw of franchise fans, there’s the additional appeal of cinephiles, particularly those who love Cregger, as well as de facto horror fans. Not to mention, mic drop, it’s the best-reviewed Resident Evil in the franchise’s 24-year history at 96% certified fresh. Previous Evil pics have been rotten on Rotten Tomatoes with critics.
At $80M worldwide, Resident Evil would rank ahead of the global start of Weapons at $70M WW (in reported, not like-for-likes). The previous seven Resident Evil titles have racked up more than $1.2 billion worldwide, with 2010’s Resident Evil: Afterlife owning the franchise opening record stateside of $26.6M.
Sony International has markets split, with Constantin taking German-speaking and Metropolitan taking French-speaking. Total offshore market count is 62, with Sony owning 58 of ’em. Thailand, CIS and South Africa are opening next weekend, with Japan going on October 9. Resident Evil will raid China at a later date, the feature IP having fared well there. 2016’s The Final Chapter in reported did close to $160M in the Middle Kingdom. Eastern Europe has been a prime market for Resident Evil as well.
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Of the international start, Sony’s bunch should do around $23M-$24M, which would be on par with Weapons in like-for-like comps, on par with 28 Years Later, 27% above Evil Dead Rise, 34% over Smile 2, 45% over Saw X, 49% over Black Phone 2 and 84% above Sinners.
Historically, top markets for the Resident Evil franchise have been Japan (Sony’s home market), Germany (Constantin’s market), Mexico, France, Taiwan, Spain, South Korea, UK, Italy, Thailand, Brazil and Australia. However, given the new take on the franchise, all eyes are on an expanded moviegoers in SPRI such as the UK, Mexico, Japan, Australia, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Italy and Malaysia.
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Stateside, even if Resident Evil falls back on a $40M opening, it’s still a record start for the franchise. The $75M production is booked at 3,000 locations, with previews starting at 2 p.m. Thursday. The asterisk here is whether the video game’s fans will fully embrace Cregger’s take. Note that he’s an avid fan of the game and made the movie with every ounce and intention of a fan. He said publicly that he hasn’t seen any of the previous Resident Evil films. For a minute, Warner Bros was in the running to scoop up his version of the reboot when the Constantin rights came up, but Sony made damn sure it would have them. Anything north of $43.5M would rep a record start for Cregger at the domestic office, ahead of last year’s Weapons.
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Also opening this weekend is Vertical’s Sundance acquisition The Weight, starring Ethan Hawke and Russell Crowe, at 1,504 theaters in North America with an eye on single digits. Previews start at 7 p.m. with an Alamo Drafthouse simulcast across the country followed by a Q&A with Hawke, Julia Jones and director Padraic McKinley. Rolled into previews will be AMC Dolby Cinema’s Wednesday night early-access screenings at 200 theaters. Critics are 93% fresh. Blurb for action crime thriller: Desperate to save what is left of his family during the height of the Great Depression, a battle-scarred veteran is hired to help smuggle a fortune in gold across 100 miles of impenetrable wilderness.
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Gkids has StudioCanal and Aardman’s production Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom booked in 2,173 domestic theaters. The 30 reviews on RT stand at 100%. The hopeful second-weekend hold for Practical Magic 2 based on audience scores is between -50% and -60%, so between $12M-$15M.